Market Update - 09.04.2012

Disappointing US job gains dampen
prospects for global recovery

American employers added less jobs in March than in the preceding months, economic figures presented late Friday demonstrated. While more than 200 000 new jobs were added each month in December, January and February, March saw a disappointing 120 000 new jobs arising fears of a slowdown and not the robust economic recovery the impressing gains in the stock markets so far in 2012 seem to have indicated.


Friday’s jobs report came with a sober message that markets might have gotten somewhat ahead of itself. The slowdown in added jobs suggest that employers remain cautious about hiring new people carefully digesting the impact of rising gasoline prices and the uncertainty about health care and pension costs.

The more pessimistic mood was confirmed when Asia opened this mo0rning. Asian exchanges fall for the fourth day in row. Chinese figures for March show an increase in inflation to 3.4 %. The Japanese yen is gaining new ground an trades at 81,426 vs. USD. The Euro has continued to drop, but has recovered somewhat in late trading and stands at 1.3065 vs. USA, down 0,20 % from Friday. Oil prices are lower on weakened perspectives for US growth. Gold is trading at 1642, up 12 dollars from the level before the US job data was presented.

In spite of the markets disappointment with the new US job figures, the 120 000 new jobs in March mean that US unemployment is reduced from 8,3 to 8,2 %. Compared with a 10,2 % unemployment rate in the Euro area and close to 25 % unemployment in Spain and Greece this is rather impressing figures. The Head of the Federal Reserve, Fred Bernanke, has for the last month tried to dampen expectations. Only last month he reminded that “better jobs numbers seem somewhat out of sync with the overall pace of economic expansion”.

In lack of good news markets are probably going to open the week down. We are in for a dumpy week and volatility in the currency markets. The weaker US job numbers might in the short run have dampen the appetite for USD and stopped the free fall of the Euro for now. Japanese Yen seems for the time being to have regained its place among investors as the most safe haven.

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